4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 20

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(:50) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.54 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 20, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model