Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 82

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27

What Actually Happened

(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-B.Bolden left end to LV 23 for 5 yards. Lateral to 87-F.Moreau to LV 28 for 5 yards (37-T.Herndon). FUMBLES (37-T.Herndon), RECOVERED by JAX-33-D.Lloyd at LV 25. 33-D.Lloyd to LV 14 for 11 yards (66-D.Parham).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.31 EP
70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 82, worth -1.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.86 EP