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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 88

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to LV 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 45 for 17 yards (57-C.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.24 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 88, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model