4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 19

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.57 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 19, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP