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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 8-A.Siposs punts 47 yards to HOU 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 25-D.King to HOU 36 for -2 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.04 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 85, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 43, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model