Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 67

Houston Texans 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(11:31) 11-C.Johnston punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.72 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model