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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 72

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 8-A.Siposs punts 52 yards to HOU 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP