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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 12

Houston Texans 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 7-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.15 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model