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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 88

Philadelphia Eagles 29 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 8-A.Siposs punts 50 yards to HOU 38, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.69 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 88, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model