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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 2

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:36) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 2, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model