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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 36

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson to ARI 40 for -4 yards (94-Z.Allen).

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.47 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 36, worth -2.10 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model