Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 77

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to ARI 24, Center-46-C.Tinker. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 31 for 7 yards (58-T.Muse). SEA-41-C.Gillaspia was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.85 EP
68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model