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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to ARI 20, Center-46-C.Tinker. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 20 for no gain (83-D.Young).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.00 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model