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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 79

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 5-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to TEN 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 2-R.Woods to TEN 39 for 11 yards (85-M.Kemp; 6-B.Cook).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model