Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Tennessee Titans 14

(:26) 5-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to TEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-29-C.Lammons.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.80 EP
57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -1.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model