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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.35 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP