Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

(3:03) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to KC 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 40 for 20 yards (30-T.Avery).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.55 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model