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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 84

Tennessee Titans 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 63 yards to KC 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 36 for 15 yards (25-H.Haskins). PENALTY on KC-43-J.Cochrane, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.23 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 84, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model