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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 88

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to TEN 45, Center-41-J.Winchester. 2-R.Woods to TEN 46 for 1 yard (85-M.Kemp). PENALTY on KC-29-C.Lammons, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.05 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 88, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model