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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire up the middle to KC 47 for 2 yards (28-J.Kalu; 93-T.Tart).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.89 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -1.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model