Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(:18) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to KC 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-M.Hardman to KC 40 for 22 yards (56-M.Rice).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.36 EP
65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -1.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model