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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 5

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.41 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth +0.58 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP