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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 21

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.07 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model