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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 42

Cleveland Browns 7 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(5:39) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 11-D.Peoples-Jones (28-K.Kohou) [2-B.Chubb].

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model