Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 7 – Miami Dolphins 10

(1:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to MIA 39, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 47 for 8 yards (37-D.Bell).

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.41 EP
69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 80, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model