Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 17 – Miami Dolphins 39

(6:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles up the middle to CLE 42 for 13 yards (20-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

What Happened

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.36 EP