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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(9:02) (No Huddle) 23-J.Wilson right tackle to MIA 40 for 4 yards (44-S.Takitaki, 43-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.26 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 64, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 22, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model