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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 36

Cleveland Browns 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to MIA 34 for 2 yards (52-E.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.29 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model