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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 33

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 10-R.Patterson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.26 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 33, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model