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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 51 yards to JAX 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-27-U.Amadi.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.63 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP