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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 17

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 10-R.Patterson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model