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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 43

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to JAX 39 for 4 yards (48-C.Muma).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.86 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -1.14 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model