Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(1:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to KC 21, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 19-K.Toney.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.93 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model