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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to LAC 30, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model