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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to SF 24, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model