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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 21

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) 15-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +2.89 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model