4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 8

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 9-R.Gould 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model