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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to LAC 21, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.38 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model