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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 41

San Francisco 49ers 19 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to LAC 1, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-26-S.Womack.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.60 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP