Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 92

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – San Francisco 49ers 19

(1:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Palmer [75-J.Willis].

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

What Happened

58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.31 EP
42% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 92, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model