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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 2

San Francisco 49ers 19 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 9-R.Gould 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +3.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.31 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP