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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 44

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-P.Harvin punts 30 yards to NO 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed. PENALTY on PIT-42-J.Pierre, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NO 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.82 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model