Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to PIT 22, Center-49-Z.Wood. 82-S.Sims to PIT 30 for 8 yards (53-Z.Baun, 48-J.Gray). PENALTY on PIT-27-M.Allen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.35 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model