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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(7:48) (No Huddle) 14-A.Dalton up the middle to NO 34 for no gain (41-R.Spillane).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model