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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 4-M.Wright 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.13 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model