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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to TB 14, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.44 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP