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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(5:43) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett to TB 28 for 10 yards (35-J.Dean).

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.44 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model