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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 34

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 3-R.Succop 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.83 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT +0.79 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model