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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 81

New York Giants 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to DET 30, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.17 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 81, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 38, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model