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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 83

Detroit Lions 3 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to NYG 20, Center-47-S.Daly. 80-R.James to NYG 27 for 7 yards (38-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.83 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 83, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 41, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP